Gold Stagnates Despite Geopolitics as Russia Claims Surge in Silver Output

The European Central Bank estimates gold accounted for 27% of global official assets by the end of 2025, surpassing U.S. Treasuries. This shift follows years of heavy central bank accumulation, peaking with annual additions exceeding 1,000 tonnes between 2022 and 2024. Despite this institutional backing, spot gold recently struggled after breaching the $4,500 per ounce threshold, showing little reaction to ongoing volatility near the Strait of Hormuz.

Heraeus analysts remain cautious regarding broader market indicators, noting that silver investor interest is cooling. Silver ETF holdings dropped by 5 million ounces in the first week of June alone, and Perth Mint sales hit their lowest levels since 2012. These figures contrast sharply with projections from Russia’s Natural Resources Minister, Alexander Kozlov, who recently forecasted 2026 silver production between 2,800 and 3,000 tonnes. Industry observers, including those tracking Nornickel’s output, suggest these Russian government figures are significantly inflated compared to actual primary supply capabilities.