OPEC Forecasts Sustained Tightness in Global Oil Markets Through 2027

Production among Declaration of Cooperation members averaged 33.13 million barrels per day in May, a drop of 190,000 barrels from April. Despite this decline, the group projects demand growth of 1.0 million barrels per day by 2026, fueled largely by manufacturing and transportation needs in China and India. While the United States remains the primary engine for demand within the OECD, total consumption figures continue to eclipse the output gains anticipated from non-DoC nations.

New barrels entering the market from the United States, Brazil, Canada, and Argentina are expected to grow by 600,000 barrels per day annually through 2027. However, these additions fail to bridge the widening gap. OPEC estimates the required demand for its own crude will climb to 42.5 million barrels per day this year, rising further to 43.5 million by 2027. With OECD commercial stocks having plummeted by 48.4 million barrels in April alone, the market remains highly sensitive to incremental production shifts.