The Price of Partnership: How China is Leveraging Russia’s Isolation

The failure to finalize the Power of Siberia 2 pipeline deal during the latest summit highlights the current reality of the Sino-Russian relationship. China is demanding domestic-level pricing for Russian gas—rates so low that Moscow would effectively lose money on every cubic meter exported. This predatory pricing, coupled with Gazprom's inability to fund the infrastructure, has left the project stalled, denying Putin the revenue stream he desperately needs to offset sanctions. Meanwhile, China continues to reap the benefits of discounted energy, with Beijing saving nearly $12 billion over the last four years on Russian oil imports alone.

Beyond energy, Russia’s dependence on Beijing has grown absolute. Moscow now sources over 90% of its sanctioned technology from China, including critical components found in Kinzhal missiles, Iskander guidance systems, and Garpia drones. Yet, even as this lifeline sustains the war effort, Xi Jinping maintains a strategic distance. Chinese state-approved maps now mandate the use of historical Chinese names for regions in Russia’s Far East, while state firms quietly secure long-term leases over timber and mineral assets. This gradual, non-confrontational expansion suggests that Beijing views Russia not as an equal partner, but as a resource-rich buffer state. For Moscow, the partnership has become a tightening noose, where every concession to Beijing serves only to accelerate the country’s long-term decline while fueling China's ascent.