Fed Holds Rates Steady as Projections Signal Future Hikes

The FOMC meeting marked the first under new chair Kevin Warsh, who secured a 12-0 consensus to hold rates. The committee pointed to solid economic growth and strong capital investment, though it acknowledged that inflation remains stubbornly above the 2% target due to ongoing energy price shocks and regional conflict. Notably, Stephen Miran, who previously advocated for rate cuts at every meeting, aligned with the majority to support the status quo.

While the current policy remains fixed, internal expectations for the future have grown hawkish. Nine of the 19 FOMC policymakers now anticipate a rate hike in 2026, a sharp contrast to the landscape three months ago when no officials projected such a move. Of those nine, six believe a single quarter-point increase will prove insufficient to anchor inflation. The shift underscores a growing divide within the committee, even as the bank opted to provide no formal guidance on the timing of future adjustments.